A world 6 months from now - Four alternate realities...

by Twi
(Aberystwyth)

In this article, I present a number of likely outcomes given current situations around the world. The situations of focus are the current uprisings in Syria, Bahrain and the future of the Israeli-Palestinian situation.


Situation 1: Civil war in Syria

Over the summer, as the protests evolved, more army units began to defect against the Assad regime. Some protesters had additionally armed themselves as rebel fighters - similar to the Libyan civil war prior to NATO intervention.
Unlike the Libyan civil war, however, there is no central region where the Assad family can make their stand. Battles are widespread in every city and town.

The most serious battles are in larger urban areas consisting of mixed religious groups, resulting in a civil war along sectarian grounds. Shia, Alawites and Christians are in an unsteady alliance against the majority Sunni population.

The Druze, as of yet, are remaining neutral to see how things turn. Kurds in the east of the country are also taking up arms to seize the opportunity of establishing an independent nation. This uprising is likely to inspire Kurdish groups in Iraq and Turkey, resulting in brutal crackdowns in Turkey particularly.
The civil war in Syria is developing into a wider, regional conflict as it emerges Saudi Arabia has been supplying arms to rebel forces through Syria's porous border with Jordan. As a counter measure, Iran is supplying military aid to the Shias. Hizbollah in Lebanon have also become embroiled in the conflict - taking the role of 'hired mercenaries'.

Lebanon itself remains relatively stable. Attempts by the Assad regime to destabilise Lebanon have all failed. Israel, so far, has not intervened, but is keeping a watchful eye.

The growing regional conflict over Syria between Saudi Arabia and Iran has resulted in soaring oil prices. The Saudi oil production itself is under threat as Shia groups stage major uprisings in the eastern provinces close to Bahrain - itself on the brink of civil war. This has had a knockon effect on the US Dollar, which has shown rapid declines in value. The Dollar's future as the Global reserve currency is under threat. The total collapse of the US currency looks increasingly likely as more nations drop their Dollar assets.


Situation 2: Syrian Democracy

Due to growing unrest, the Alawites took the unprecedented step of severing connections with the Assad family. Bashar Al-Assad has been removed from power, and an interim government had initially been formed with an Alawite president to secure Syria's transition to democracy. Under increasing public pressure, a new government exists which better reflects the population, so Alawite, Shia, Sunni, Druze and Kurds are all represented - with the majority of representatives being Sunni. Kurdish members of government were invited with hope of keeping Syria 'whole'.

The Sunni majority government has since broken ties with Iran, and has instead established strong links with Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the GCC nations.

Iran, having lost her partnership with the Assad regime, is forming a natural alliance with Egypt, which has granted Iran unrestricted permission to sail ships through the Suez Canal. Through this gateway, Iran is able to directly arm Hizbollah and other groups in Lebanon, causing great instability in Lebanon itself, pushing it to the brink of civil war.

Israel has been more isolated. Public pressure in Egypt forced the Egyptian government to renounce the Camp David peace accord. An Israeli attack on the town of Rafah to 'prevent the flow of arms to Gaza' has forced Egypt into an alliance with Iran.
With the growing threat of civil war in Lebanon, Israeli intervention seems likely, with the risk of a regional Israel-Iran conflict.

Israel herself is facing growing internal instability as the Palestinian Association and Hamas have had to re-engage their terms due to increasing protests from the Palestinian population. The people of the newly established Palestinian nation (September 2011), comprising of regions of the West Bank and Gaza strip, feel cheated by their government, who they accuse of 'selling out' to the Zionists.

After the 'rushed' inclusion of Jordan to the GCC block, Iran has accused the GCC nations of collaborating with Israel to oppress the Shias. The people of Iran have united in solidarity for the Shia populations of Bahrain and Saudi Arabia. The Iranian authorities are now 'turning a blind eye' to ships full of unarmed Shia supporters leaving Iranian ports bound for Bahraini waters. The sinking of one of those ships by Saudi Arabia has sparked Shia outrage across the region. Bahrain is in turmoil, with armed rebels fighting government forces. Saudi Arabia is destabilising as Shias in the oil-rich eastern part of the country demand independence.

The US government watches nervously as the oil-flow is threatened. The US fifth fleet, still stationed at Bahrain, is on full alert – ready to intervene.

Situation 3: Israel on the brink of Civil War

Fed up with the PA and Hamas, the Palestinian people have taken it upon themselves to establish their own nation. Widespread protests in all Palestinian towns have lead to the downfall of both the PA and Hamas, and the emergence of a new popular movement for the creation of a Palestinian state based on 1967 borders.

The movement is also calling for 'Israeli-Arab' representation in the Knesset for those Palestinians living and working in the lands of pre-1967 Israel.

After the declaration of a Palestinian nation in September, the population marched on every check-point, settlement and border fence in the region. The Israeli army, which had been defending the settlements, had now been deployed to 'assist' the relocation of the settlement residents. Faced with seemingly forced eviction from either the Palestinians or the Israeli army, the settlers have taken it upon themselves to make a stand. An unsteady, nervous, trigger hand has resulted in battles between Jewish settlers and pockets of the Israel Defense Forces.

The rest of the Israeli army is being overwhelmed by the shear numbers of Palestinians marching against them. In coordination with the march, hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees in both Lebanon, Syria and Jordan are also on the move. The movements in the north have concentrated their efforts on the Druze village of Majdal Shams in the Golan, and the Israeli border town of Metulla in the Galil Elyon. The march on Metulla has taken the Israeli army by surprise, as they were in the general belief the attack would come from the hills of Ras Maroun; the site of the Nakba clashes in May.

As the Israeli army aims it's guns ready to open fire, unsure of what way the Palestinian march will go, news reaches them of violent sectarian riots in Western Jerusalem. In Jerusalem, violent gunfire erupts between the ultra-orthodox and the secular over the settlements issue. In Tel-Aviv, tens of thousands take to the streets in support of a new Palestinian nation which will 'unify the Jewish people with their Arabian neighbours'.
The news spreads like wildfire on social network sites, and soon those marching on the borders and checkpoints get wind of the Jerusalem riots. An already stretched Israeli army attempts to contain the rapidly escalating violence.

Meanwhile, the Palestinian marchers halt their advance, watching and waiting for Israel to destroy itself from within...


Situation 4: The People of Libya ask NATO to leave. The rise of the SCO.

The NATO campaign in Libya goes on longer than many expected. Several announcements are made that Gaddaffi has been killed in an airstrike, but it will later emerge that an elite NATO ‘swat’ team were involved. With Gaddaffi removed, the Libyan people express their desire to rebuild their own nation and formally request NATO halt what has become to be perceived as an ‘occupation’. A formal protest is also lodged stating that the ‘Presence of NATO ground troops was forbidden in the original UN mandate’. The elite sniper ‘swat (SAS?)’ team is deemed a ground presence.

The situation is enflamed when a leading female speaker in US government says ‘The Libyan people are unable to rebuild their nation without NATO supervision”. The comment is interpreted, as ‘Libyans are too stupid to make their own decisions and need to be told what to do’.
A pro-Western (puppet) government is installed which treats the Libyan people just as badly as Gaddaffi. Protests in several key cities are brutally oppressed, leading to a second revolution against NATO presence.

The revolt against NATO is supported by Egypt – where Egyptian people are now moving towards the Libyan border in a show of solidarity. Egypt has increased ties with Iran and broken diplomatic relations with France and the US over the continued NATO presence.

Observations of the revolt against NATO has also resulted in mass demonstrations in Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan itself is extremely unstable as demonstrators arm themselves against unwanted US aggression within their own borders.
The US, keen to retain the strategic location in Central Asia, refuses to withdraw from Afghanistan. Tit-for-tat diplomatic expulsions between a nuclear armed Pakistan and the US bring the two nations to the brink of military conflict.

China and Russia, under the influence of Vladamir Putin, call for NATO’s withdrawal from Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan as it is now against the will of the people. Vladamir Putin makes a speech calling for a counter balance against NATO. At the same time, Iran and Pakistan are promoted to member states from observers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).